美元：虽然结果已经出来了，波动范围也因为位置调整而维持现状。

　　欧元：由于年末有进入衰退的风险，德国生产数据最值得注意，但是更加疲软的数字对欧元没有太大影响，因为目前美元的风险是最主要的。

　　澳元：周三早些时候发布了劳动力市场数据。随着澳洲连春银行这周决定维持利率不变，市场可能会对其国内数据更敏感。

　　MOVING TO THE NEXT BATTLE

　　?? USD: Even though the result has come through， scope for volatility remains as positions are adjusted.

　　?? EUR: German production data of most note， given risk of further slip into recession into year-end， but weaker numbers not likely to have major impact on EUR， with USD risks dominating.

　　?? AUD: Labour market data is out early Wednesday. After RBA kept rates on hold this week， market likely to be more sensitive to domestic data.

　　So it’s over， but it isn’t. Obama’s victory was stronger than expected. At the same time， the balance in the Senate has shifted slightly more towards the democrats and at present the House is looking more Republican. FX markets are notorious for being single-minded， so with the election over， it’s time to concentrate on the fiscal cliff， the impact of which starts on 1st January next year. On paper at least， this election has significantly decreased the likelihood of a workable compromise ahead of then. We’ll likely get one， but it will be painful， messy and last minute. The dollar will struggle on this， although this may take time to come through.

　　结束了，但是也没有结束。奥巴马的胜利超出预期。同时，参议院的平衡略微倾向于民主党。而同时，众议院则更加共和党化。由于外汇市场出了名的一根筋，因此随着选举的结束，现在是时候关注金融风险的问题了。金融风险的影响将于明年1月1日开始显现。至少在纸面上，此次选举显著降低了可行的承诺的可能性。我们有可能得到，但会很痛苦，很有麻烦，而且非最后一分钟不能到手。美元会为此而挣扎，虽然还需要时间来克服。

　　?? USD: .Dollar index is around 0.40% lower in the wake of the election result， which reflects factors such as policy gridlock， greater likelihood of Bernanke remaining head of Fed.

　　?? GOLD: Reversing the weakness seen towards the end of last week on the back of Obama victory.

　　?? JPY: Some volatility on the yen overnight as the initial down-move on USD/JPY was partially recovered into the European session.

　　?? AUD: Data showed FX reserves increasing in August， with UBS also highlighting rise in deposits of foreign institutions held at the central bank increasing as well. Suggestion that RBA is “printing Aussie dollars” to satisfy demand from foreign central banks.

　　美元：美元指数在大选结果出来之后大概降低了0.40%，这反映了政策上的僵局。而伯南克有很大可能留任美联储主席。

　　黄金：扭转了奥巴马胜利前一周的疲软态势。

　　日元：前一天日元方面有些波动，因为起初美元/日元的下行趋势在欧洲交易时间内部分恢复。

　　澳元：数据显示八月的外汇储备增加，而瑞银（UBS）也强调，外国机构在其中央银行的存款也上升了。这显示澳洲联储银行正在“印刷澳元”以满足外国中央银行的需求。

　　OBAMA VICTORY HELPS THE AUSSIE

　　奥巴马的胜利帮助了澳元

　　From the perspective of political continuity， the re-election of President Obama is helpful for risk assets in general and the Aussie dollar in particular. Instead of a lame-duck president， we have one with a fresh mandate and with his party also invigorated by a decent victory in the Senate. Obama’s re-appointment enables the Fed Chairman to continue with his ultra-loose monetary policy， another positive for risk appetite. Also， the president is very familiar with the issues surrounding resolution of the fiscal cliff and the debt ceiling issues， although there are understandable doubts over whether he can craft a deal given the extraordinarily partisan political climate in Washington.

　　从政治连续性来看，奥巴马总统连任对一般的风险资产都有帮助，特别是澳元。奥巴马不是一个无用的总统，他政令鲜明，而且他所在的政党也受到在参议院的胜利鼓舞。奥巴马的连任让美联储主席可以继续其超级宽松的货币政策，这对冒险家也是正面的鼓舞。而且，总统非常熟悉金融风险相关的问题，还有债务最高限额的问题，虽然还不确定总统是否能在华盛顿党派政治气候中制定一个协议。

　　As such， the stars continue to align quite nicely for the Aussie right now. Apart from political and economic continuity in America， the RBA’s decision not to reduce the cash rate means that interest rate differentials down under are at two-month wides. For instance， the spread between 10yr yields down under and the US is 150bp. Also， the growth backdrop in both the American and Chinese economies， on which Australia relies heavily， has improved recently. Finally， foreign demand for Australian debt remains strong， buoyed by a very credible fiscal policy， low government debt， a well-capitalised banking system and a highly-respected independent central bank. Australia remains a favoured destination for sovereign wealth funds， attracted by the fact that the country is one of the world’s few remaining genuinely AAA-rated sovereigns.

　　这样的话，目前澳元算是时来运转了。不说美国的政治以及经济方面的连续性，澳洲联储银行不降低现金利率的决定意味着澳新地区的利率差有两个月的宽度。例如，美国和澳新地区十年期收益利差有150基点。同时，美国和中国经济是澳大利亚的大靠山，前二者最近的改善也是非常显著的。最后，澳大利亚债务的外国需求也是很强的，这是受到可靠的金融政策，低的政府债务，高度资本化的银行系统，和广受尊敬的中央银行的鼓舞。澳大利亚是主权财富基金最喜爱的目的地，这是因为这个国家是世界上少有的真正三A级别主权国家之一。